sinatraco.com Blog

Microsoft’s “Azure,” and quite possibly Microsoft itself, may fail due to a simple miscalculation.  It appears Microsoft believes Cloud Computing, a.k.a. Software-as-a-Service, is a “next generation” technology rather than a paradigm shift to a new form of computing. 

A paradigm shift is when a new form of technology emerges that replaces the old, while a next generation technology builds on previous computing architectures (not replacing it, but rather growing out from it).  The difference between these two concepts may seem subtle, but it is this very distinction that may put an end to Microsoft.   

These “paradigm shifts” in IT rarely occur – a true paradigm shift happens when one form of computing completely replaces another.  In fact, there really has been only one true paradigm shift in recent history, when Supercomputer centers where replaced by on-site servers and desktops.  The advent of the desktop computer was a paradigm shift, whereas, the advent of servers that tie desktops together was a “next generation” iteration. 

There is a significant difference between a paradigm shift and iterative/evolutionary growth – the first is a complete replacement (flat world vs. round world), while the latter simply builds on what already exists (the introduction of laptops, which did not replace desktops). 

Today, it appears that we’re in the midst of a true paradigm shift, in which one form of computing may completely replace another form.  Cloud Computing, or “Software-as-a-Service,” is the new paradigm, and it will replace the current Server/desktop model due to efficiency and simplicity.

Microsoft’s miscalculation is the belief that Cloud Computing is evolutionary, or a next generation of computing, while there is growing evidence that this is a true paradigm shift.  Only time will tell, but it would seem a strong case could be made that we’re living in a historic moment (from a technology perspective).

I would seem that Microsoft is still trying to put old wine into new bottles, and their failure to understand the difference between an actual paradigm shift and an evolutionary/iterative shift will likely be their downfall (if, in fact, this is a paradigm shift):

Don’t Be Fooled…

It’s important to understand what this paradigm shift is.  The real paradigm shift is NOT about putting applications that were once on servers into the “cloud” (or Internet), which is what Microsoft’s Azure seems to be doing.  The real paradigm shift is in a multi-tenant architecture.  This kind of architecture utilizes limited instances of an application that is shared between many companies.  While the data for each company is stored separately, the application itself is shared.

Why Is Multi-Tenancy the Key?

Multi-Tenancy resolves the fatal flaws inherent in the current server/desktop paradigm – software upgrades, software patches, broken integrations, lost data due to upgrades, conflicting applications, hardware upgrades, managing thousands of desktop computers, etc.  IT departments are spending millions of dollars trying to maintain these infrastructures that continue to become more and more complex. 

The success of the current server/desktop model depends on complexity.  Revenue is derived from upgrades, patches, on-site installations, etc.  The more complex and difficult to manage this infrastructure becomes the more Microsoft and it’s developers earn. 

It would appear Microsoft’s Azure is simply taking this complex IT nightmare and moving onto a new platform.  All the issues described above are not resolved, but rather moved to a new place.  Software + Service (Microsoft’s approach to “SaaS”) is simply the same Emperor in new clothes, nothing more.  

Multi-tenancy, on the other hand, represents an entirely new form of computing.  Instead of computing power residing locally it is accessed via the Internet.  Instead of millions of different versions of a single application on hundreds of different servers and desktops, millions of companies can now use a single version on one Application – a single set of source code for all users.  The difference between these two approaches is night and day – one will ultimately replace the other.  

During the early stages of the Industrial Age factories created their own electricity.  This provided them with a competitive advantage and an entire industry grew up around creating on-site generators.  Each company spent a portion of their revenue developing their own infrastructure specifically to create electricity. 

Then, a new technology emerged.  This new “grid” technology allowed electricity to be created centrally and delivered via wires (sound familiar?).  Delivering electricity became far less expensive than a company could do on their own.  The entire industry who provided on-site electricity infrastructure practically vanished. 

It was a paradigm shift that is very similar to what we’re seeing today.  We’re in the early stages of this shift so there will be some hiccups and growing pains, but this does not mean it’s not a paradigm shift. 

I suspect the advent of “Cloud Computing,” or more specifically multi-tenant Cloud Computing, will ultimately replace our existing approach to computing.  Just like electricity was ultimately “outsourced and commoditized,” it would appear on-site computing will also go the way of on-site electricity creation. 

This shift is already taking place.  It’s only a matter of time before enough pressure builds and the dam breaks.  Cloud Computing is reaching a critical mass.  When it does, Microsoft will disappear (if it does not wholeheartedly adopt SaaS and walk away from their most profitable products and services).   

Helpful Links:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13846_3-10079576-62.html

http://blogs.zdnet.com/microsoft/?p=1671&tag=mncol;txt

http://cloudenterprise.info/2008/10/29/microsoft-azure-vs-amazon-google-and-vmware/